The smartphone market has seen its biggest drop in history. Xiaomi and OPPO have lost 26 million units, while Samsung and Apple are holding up

In the third quarter of 2026, manufacturers sent 255.3 million smartphones to stores. Year-on-year, that’s 22% fewer. No analytics firm has recorded such a decline in any quarter yet, IDC. The hardest-hit were Chinese brands Xiaomi and OPPO.

The reason is memory. Both RAM and storage got more expensive because chipmakers are producing more and more memory for servers running artificial intelligence. That leaves less for cheap phones, and costs rise.

Xiaomi and OPPO lost the most units

Samsung shipped 57,8 million phones and Apple 57,3 million. Both declined only by 4 to 6%. Xiaomi sent 30,7 million units to the market instead of 43,4 million, a drop of 29,2%. OPPO, which IDC also includes OnePlus and realme, fell from 39,1 to 25,6 million, down by 34,5%. Vivo lost 31,5%.

In units, Xiaomi lost 12,7 million phones and OPPO 13,5 million. The whole market lost 72 million units, so these two brands account for more than one-third of the decline. Xiaomi still holds third place with a share of 12%. Samsung and Apple improved from roughly 18% to more than 22%.

Comparable figures also come from the competing firm Counterpoint. According to it, the market fell by 20% and the third quarter was the weakest since 2012. It also says Xiaomi has 12%. In the first version of the report, the company listed 10%, and then corrected the number. Counterpoint adds that Xiaomi deliberately limited its cheapest models and less important overseas markets. It would rather raise prices than sell phones at a loss.

Memory prices rose by about 350%

Nabila Popal from IDC says that memory is today roughly 350% more expensive than a year ago and its prices keep rising. However, the growth is slowing down. In the third quarter, prices increased by just a little more than 10%. Previously, it was 50 to 100% in each quarter. Other components are getting pricier too. “The worst is yet to come,” Popal adds.

Manufacturers are passing higher costs on to customers. According to Counterpoint, smartphones in stores are, on average, from the beginning of the year 2026 more expensive by 20%. The worst off are the low-end models. Their price doesn’t include a buffer from which the manufacturer could pay for the more expensive memory. Samsung and Apple sell more high-end phones, so this hurts them less.

That already showed during the year. For Europe, Xiaomi canceled the 18 Ultra model specifically due to memory prices, and Xiaomi 18 Pro Max is its most expensive flagship in history.

Redmi Note 17 Pro got a version with less memory

The latest example comes from this week in China. Quietly, Redmi launched the Redmi Note 17 Pro New Edition. Compared to the original July model, the phone differs mainly in memory. Versions 6 + 256 GB and 8 + 128 GB cost 1 599 yuan, in the conversion under 215 euros. The version 8 + 256 GB costs 1 699 yuan, i.e., under 230 euros.

According to the Gizmochina portal above, the higher versions (8 + 512 GB and 12 + 256 GB) have disappeared from the lineup. A model with 6 GB of RAM has been added instead. The Snapdragon 6s Gen 4 chipset, 9,000 mAh battery, and 67 W charging remain the same. For now, it’s only for the Chinese market. Whether a global version will also arrive is something Xiaomi hasn’t said. What the current memory differences are between global models, you can find in our comparison of Redmi Note 17 Pro and 17 Pro Max.

Improvements only in 2028

IDC expects the market to stay weak throughout the year 2027 and pick up only in year 2028. According to analysts, manufacturers are counting on components staying more expensive permanently. Another risk is inventory levels. Some brands produced more because they were afraid of a shortage of components. If demand stays weak, the phones could end up sitting in their warehouses.

The market is also in the red in China. According to IDC’s China office, shipments there fell by 15.4%, and Xiaomi lost 20.4% at home. Only Huawei grew—by 17.3%.

If you’re planning to replace your phone, waiting for price drops isn’t worth it, according to analysts. Kiranjeet Kaur from IDC recommends buying during year-end promotion events, when discounts are the biggest. For us, that’s the clearance sale 11.11 and Black Friday. We’ll be collecting the best deals from them on the website as well as on Telegram.

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